Prior to all of the build up of the double-header round at Iowa Speedway for rounds 11 and 12, there were many questions that still needed to be answered. Has there been any breakthrough in the whole Alex Palou saga, will we see Scott Dixon make a late season charge for his record equalling seventh title with the legendary AJ Foyt. Will we see points leader Marcus Ericsson extend his points lead of Penske’s Will Power and team-mate Alex Palou. I discuss the potential candidates that we could see in the victory circle and who could be on the podium and who could be the best performing rookie.
Has anything progressed for Alex Palou?
Since the last race in Toronto, there has been some movement in where Alex Palou might be racing for the 2023 NTT IndyCar season. This is due to Felix Rosenqvist speculating that we might not even see Alex Palou race for the entire 2023 season at Chip Ganassi Racing or Arrow McLaren SP. Felix is quoted saying “At the moment it doesn’t sound like he’s going to be racing at all.” If this is the case then this would be a lose-lose for the sport, given how talented Alex is and after all you don’t win a championship in this talented field without having the talent and raw speed. Alex is an innocent bystander in the whole saga and his recovery from what could have been a confidence destroyer. A crash in practice and then a mechanical issue in qualifying prevented him advancing up the grid. In a roll the dice race saw Alex go from P22 at the start to finishing P6 at the chequered flag.
I personally see Felix moving onto the McLaren Formula E programme with Alex Palou taking over the seat of the 7 Arrow McLaren SP car. If Felix is forced to move to the Formula E programme it will be a massive loss to the IndyCar paddock given what he has achieved in junior formula. It is also a loss because of the personality that the Swede has, he is a quietly spoken person who gets his head down and works hard and is calculated. This is something which every driver will say they have but struggle to show that when it comes to that last lap in qualifying.
Can Scott Dixon make a late charge to equal IndyCar history?
It was almost too hard to fathom the thought of Scott Dixon going an entire season without getting a win. Scott Dixon has been racing in America for over 20 years in which time he has won a race in 19 different seasons, whether that would be in the IndyCar series or in the CART series. It’s something that isn’t impossible, in fact Scott is only 44 points behind Chip Ganassi Racing team-mate Marcus Ericsson and one thing that makes for sore eyes for his competitors as Scott likes to have a late season charge by grabbing podiums. The minute Scott gets that first podium, he goes on a roll of podiums and even top 5’s.
The latest win in Toronto was historic, tying the legendary figure Mario Andretti with 52 wins. Not achieving this milestone, would have been eating at Scott given how good his reputation already is. After getting the undercut on Andretti Autosport’s Colton Herta in the first round of stops, Scott got into the zone that has seen him with six titles and now have 52 wins. He managed to preserve the tyres and fuel in what can only be described as, Scott Dixon like, while maintaining the gap to young Colton.
Can Marcus Ericsson extend his points lead?
There is no doubt that Marcus Ericsson is having the season of his life and it’s a season that Marcus has been threatening to show for some time. Even though it hasn’t been Ericsson’s most rewarding season in terms of wins and podiums, the Swede has been racking up top 5 after top 5 which has seen the Swede top of the points chart with seven races to go. He has a 35 point gap over Team Penske’s Will Power, with a helping hand of the doubles system that IndyCar applies to the Indy 500. Even without the double points system, Ericsson would still be leading the championship, albeit tied on points.
This season Ericsson has finished 98% of all the racing laps this year (1088 possible laps). Ericsson has also led 36 laps this season, mostly towards the end of the 106th running of the Indianapolis 500. He has also had five top 5 finishes this season and eight top 10’s and this could have been more if it hadn't been for a late race crash at Long Beach where he was running in a podium position. The one thing that Marcus needs to improve on is his qualifying pace. A season best of 4th at Road America put him in the position of achieving a podium, however an 18th place starting slot at the Indianapolis Road Course on Saturday was met with a 4th place finish on Sunday with mixed conditions. Even though Ericsson’s qualifying results have improved, he is still qualifying in the lower top 10 which is still hindering his progress through the field meaning most of the races are having to be done in the pit-stops.
There is no doubt of the talent that Marcus Ericsson possesses, given his Formula 1 experience, but having never been in a title battle since the 2011 GP2 Final. His last championship winning campaign was in 2008 in the Japanese Formula 3 championship. So the question remains, does Ericsson have what it takes to see out this title battle with series champions or will the occasion get to Marcus and allow someone else to swoop in and take that crown away from him?
Who are the favourites for the Iowa double-header?
All you have to do is look at the recent winners at Iowa Speedway and the clear favourite should be a Team Penske driver, given that Penske have won four of the last five races held at the speedway. With Josef Newgarden the most winningest driver on the current grid with three wins (2016, 2019, 2020 Race 2). Josef comes into the race as the defending race winner.
The other Team Penske winners are Simon Pagenaud (2020 race 1) and Helio Castroneves (2017). For Pagenaud he has always been a consistent performer around Iowa with his lowest finishing position being 14th place when racing for Team Penske. Pagenaud has an average finishing position of 6.4 which in ten races around the speedway is a pretty impressive record. The question is can Meyer Shank Racing provide Simon with a race car that can make him a 2-time winner around Iowa Speedway.
Scott Dixon is also a contender for the win even though he has never won around the oval, he has however been on the podium several times and has a good finishing record around the speedway. In the fifteen races that have been held at Iowa, Scott has only finished outside the top 10 twice in 2013 and 2015. Coming off the back of the win at Toronto, Scott has all the motivation needed to back it back to back wins but the true question is can he make it happen.
Never discount Alexander Rossi from winning at all, in a season where the Andretti Autosport squad has struggled, Rossi has looked a different driver since the Arrow McLaren SP team. His best place finish is 6th place three times (2916, 2019, 2020 race 1), so maybe Alexander will go a few steps further and win for the first time this season and the first time in a few years. On the previous two ovals (Texas and Indy) the best that Alexander has finished is 27th (DNF due to a mechanical on lap 11) at Texas and 5th at Indianapolis so the question remains can Alexander be the 2nd Andretti driver to win this season.
There are other candidates that could be a factor for the win at the Iowa double-header. Marcus Ericsson, points leader, can he get his first oval win and 2nd of the season at another oval. Arrow McLaren SP, Felix Rosenqvist already has a pole at Texas earlier in the season and was a contender for the win at Indianapolis for the Indy 500. Pato O’Ward, just like Felix was a contender at the Indy 500, he has had speed when it comes to previous ovals and is always a threat with his natural speed. Given the success that Penske have had in recent years, why not throw Will Power as a potential winner this season at Iowa.
Who could be the best performing rookie?
There will be a fair amount of rookies racing at Iowa Speedway for the first time even without being classified in the field. Dalton Kellett for example, in his 3rd year in IndyCar and will be making his Iowa debut. The same goes for 7-time NASCAR Cup Series Champion Jimmie Johnson, a second season driver, he too will be making his Iowa debut this weekend but this won’t be his first oval race having done both the XPEL 375 and the Indy 500 in which he finished a very impressive 6th place at Texas and 28th at Indianapolis after a very late crash, which in turn almost cost team-mate Marcus Ericsson the victory at Indianapolis.
Scott Mclaughlin, the ever impressive Kiwi, will be one to watch this weekend given the impressive record his team, Penske, have around Iowa. On the ovals Scott has had a bunch of mix results, getting a podium on his oval debut at Texas race 1, following up that podium with an 8th at Texas race 2. His first Indy 500 was followed up with a 20th place finish, in what can only be described as an underwhelming for the entire Team Penske organisation. At his next oval at Gateway he would finish 4th behind team-mates Josef Newgarden and Will Power and Pato O’Ward. Moving onto his oval results in 2022, then they carry on where they left off from 2021 with a 2nd place at Texas after being overtaken by Newgarden on the last corner of the last lap. Fast forward to the 106th Running of the Indy 500 and things didn’t get any better after a crash on lap 150.
David Malukas had an outstanding oval debut at Texas Motor Speedway being the last car on the lead lap at the twin chequered flags and also leading three laps. For an oval debutant that sort of result couldn’t have been any more ideal, knowing how to follow in the dirty air of a car in front, leading the race in clear air and it was something that Malukas would take into his next oval experience being the Indy 500. The Indianapolis 500 can be daunting regardless of how much or how little experience you have around the 2.5 mile oval but Malukas handled himself very well. Qualified in a very respectable P13 and finished in P16 avoiding all the other incidents on track while the Dale Coyne team did a great job with his pit stops.
Romain Grosjean originally came to America to do the street and road courses but he then got the oval bug after Gateway in 2021 where he finished in P14. Moving onto 2022, Romain has experienced two different types of ovals; both have somewhat been underwhelming with a mechanical failure in the XPEL 375 at Texas. Moving on towards Indy, Romain had a very good qualifying up in P9, the highest placed Andretti driver and the only Andretti driver to make it to the ‘Firestone Fast 12’. The race however would be a different story, after the 2nd restart for Callum Ilott’s crash he looked out of his depth and lost 4 positions going into turn 1. His race ultimately came to an end after a gust of wind unsettled the rear of his 28 DHL Andretti Autosport on the entrance to turn 2 and on lap 105 of 200 his race was over but overall it was a good experience for the Indy 500 rookie.
Christian Lundgaard is now moving onto his third oval in his short IndyCar career but he hasn’t been getting the results that he would have been wanting. A 19th place finish in Texas was caused due to a DNF on lap 233 but all in all it was a poor round for the entire Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing squad as Graham Rahal finished in P22 due to contact with Devlin DeFrancesco and Simon Pagenaud and with Jack Harvey ruled out injured due to a crash, in came super-sub Santino Ferrucci, being forced by rule to start at the back of the pack Santino would find his way to 9th place which definitely got some eyes wide open with that performance. The same qualifying issues happened to Christian at the Indy 500, starting in P31 Christian went on to finish in 18th place progress was made but team RLL needed to work on their qualifying pace.
Callum Ilott has had an abundance of pace this season on the road and street courses, converting that into oval pace is somewhat of a mystery. The Juncos Hollinger Racing machine qualified P20 at Texas to achieve a P16 finish, which is impressive given Callum has never seen an oval in race spec with all the other drivers. Moving onto Indy, a different type of oval to Texas, Callum had a good preparation given all the factors that should work against both him and the team. Ultimately it was the same incident as to what Grosjean suffered but worst for Ilott was that he accidentally punched the car and broke his hand ruling him out of the next race at Belle Isle, Detroit the following week.
Devlin DeFrancesco had no love lost after the experience at Texas being involved in not just one, not two but three incidents with Indy 500 champions and series champions but that did nothing to his attitude. At Indy the Canadian racer went from qualifying P24 to finishing P20 and this time he managed to avoid coming together with other drivers. Kyle Kirkwood another fast rookie in the series, in Texas he was unfortunate to have had his race ended early trying an ambitious move on the outside of turn 4 and losing the rear on the PJ1 section of the track and ended up in the wall. Then came Indianapolis qualifying in a lowly position of 28th, the young Floridian put on a masterful drive to get a 17th place finish.
To answer the original question of who could be the best performing rookie at the Iowa double-header, my guess would be Scott Mclaughlin given how strong he is on the ovals and that he has taken to them like a duck to water. He could easily have had a win earlier this year so on a short oval my money is on Scott to be the best performer.
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