With only seven races left in the 2022 NTT IndyCar season and after all the controversy with Alex Palou signing for the McLaren organisation after Chip Ganassi Racing exercised a year option in his current contract what does this all mean for the rest of the grid for next year? Here are my predictions for who will be racing where next year.
Chip Ganassi Racing:
Well after the week it's been for Chip's team, why not start there. We know that in the four-car team that two of the drivers are under contract for 2023, those being 7-time Champion Scott Dixon and 2022 Indy 500 Champion and current points leader Marcus Ericsson. Jimmie Johnson looks set the get a third year at the team, whether his performances have warranted a third year is up to you to decide but his oval debut back at Texas Motor Speedway would have been a breakout result that everyone was expecting from the 7-time NASCAR Cup series Champion. Other than the Indy 500 win with Marcus and the historic Toronto win with Scott, it has been an underwhelming 2022 for the Ganassi squad.
Now let's talk about Alex Palou. This is a situation that could have easily been avoided back when the rumours of a possible departure started days before the 106th running of the Indianapolis 500 back in May. If CGR have exercised the clause in Alex's contract of a third year at the team, then the balls in McLaren's and Zak Brown's court. Do you let Alex have his final year at CGR and get him for 2024 or do you buy out his contract at CGR? All this does is end horribly for both team and driver, given how CGR highly rate the young Spaniard.
Possible Replacements:
Rinus Veekay (Ed Carpenter Racing), Colton Herta (Andretti Autosport), David Malukas (Dale Coyne Racing).
Driver Line-up: Scott Dixon, Marcus Ericsson, Jimmie Johnson, Rinus Veekay, Tony Kanaan (Indy 500).
Team Penske:
Arguably having their best season since 2019 with six wins and all three drivers getting those wins (Josef Newgarden x3, Scott Mclaughlin x2, Will Power x1). It also sees Josef and Scott both in contention for the IndyCar title, in Scott's case being 77 points behind leader Marcus Ericsson while Josef sits 44 points behind with seven races to go. For Scott to get the weight off his shoulders by getting that first win at the start of the season in St. Petersburg, Florida showed that he could cope well in the high-pressured situations of a restart from a full-course caution or defending late on against series champion Alex Palou.
Now let's go on a bit more about Josef Newgarden, the two-time series champion putting on performance after performance and some of his drives this year have been nothing short of stunning, the victory at Texas Motor Speedway springs to mind. Making the last corner overtake on team-mate Scott Mclaughlin on the last corner just shows his never die attitude and then the very secure victory at Long Beach, California, holding off a hard charger in Romain Grosjean on reds (softer tyre) compared to Josef's black (harder tyre).
Not only has 2022 seen the Penske organisation cut down from being a four-car team to a three-car team it has also seen a new side of Will Power, a side that has very rarely been seen throughout an entire season. Mr Consistent this year with his results, early points leader after quite an impressive start with a couple of 3rd and 4th places. Other than a couple of races that saw him finish outside the top 10, Will Power has to be a contender for driver of the season.
Possible Replacements:
None
Driver line-up: Scott Mclaughlin, Josef Newgarden, Will Power.
Andretti Autosport:
2022 has been a real struggle for Michael Andretti's men, only one win coming in the Indianapolis Road Course in the hands of young American driver Colton Herta. With Alexander Rossi leaving the team to join rivals Arrow McLaren SP, you would think that it would be time for one of his current team-mates, other than Colton, to step up but it just hasn't been the case. With Kyle Kirkwood confirmed to replace Alexander Rossi, then Andretti Autosport will be looking for a new experienced team-leader. Romain Grosjean in his first year with the team can be slightly excused but with his rookie year consisting of podiums with Dale Coyne, you would have expected more from the Swiss born Frenchman. Devlin DeFrancesco in his rookie season has seemed to struggle with the transition from the Indy Lights program to IndyCar with his best qualifying coming in Toronto with a career best of 12th place but ended up falling down the order and finished in 18th place. His best race position is 17th with came at the Mid-Ohio Sports Car Course and the Grand Prix of Alabama.
Colton Herta has also had a fairly inconsistent season by his lofty standards, other than the win at the Indianapolis Road Course and a 2nd place at Toronto, he has spent more time racking up more results outside of the top 10 than in previous years. This could be down to the 26 car not liking all the different tracks that IndyCar go to during the year, strategy or even just the setup of the car holding Colton back but if Colton wants to follow up on his McLaren test at Portimão then his results need to be more consistent.
Alexander Rossi had looked like an entirely different driver since the Indy 500, once it got announced he was to leave the Andretti Autosport camp and join Arrow McLaren SP. Rossi could easily have had two wins this season at the final ever race at Belle Isle, Detroit, and at Road America after getting his first pole in three years. However, the last two races at Mid-Ohio and at Toronto will be ones that Alexander wishes to forget, contact with team-mate Romain Grosjean not once, not twice but three times would not have been what he wanted in his farewell season with the team that he won the 100th running of the Indy 500 with.
Then you have Marco Andretti, he only steps in to do the 'Jewel in the IndyCar crown' Indy 500. He finished in P22 after qualifying P23 after a miss understanding with Takuma Sato when he went for his qualifying run. He went on to set a four-lap average of 230.345 mph.
Possible Replacements:
Kyle Kirkwood (AJ Foyt Racing)
Driver line-up: Romain Grosjean, Kyle Kirkwood, Devlin DeFrancesco, Colton Herta, Marco Andretti (Indy 500).
Arrow McLaren SP:
This was the season where the Arrow McLaren SP team were going to take it to the 'Top 3 teams' (Chip Ganassi Racing, Team Penske, and Andretti Autosport), however a slow start to the season for the team saw paddock rumours swirl of a possible departure of star talent Pato O'Ward and with Felix Rosenqvist fighting to save his seat in the 7 car, this on paper had the hallmarks of a very turbulent season for the team. Victory for Pato at the Grand Prix of Alabama meant the whispers were getting louder and having still not signed a new deal with AMSP would have caught the eye of some top teams. The last few races however for Pato have been a struggle with a lack of pace and reliability issues coming with the Chevrolet engine. He also came within metres of winning the Indy 500, a 2nd place is not the position to be at the event given the history of the event and the track layout.
For Felix though the start of the season was more of a struggle, he had the speed in the car which was shown at the first oval of the season in Texas but a pit lane incident with his pit crew ruined a potential good result. Ultimately reliability ended his race early, but the signs were there of the Felix Rosenqvist we saw at times with Chip Ganassi Racing, fighting for a last lap win at Mid-Ohio in 2019 with team-mate Scott Dixon or making a late race pass on now team-mate Pato O'Ward at Road America in 2020. Something woke Felix up at the beginning of the month of May, when his seat had been publicly questioned where he went on a run of scoring top 10's.
Juan Pablo Montoya joined the team for the month of May starting at the Indy Road Course, where he was having a very good race when the rain fell. He was comfortably in the top 10 before being a late race crash ruined what was a very good pace. Juan Pablo had a very poor qualifying for the Indy 500, starting P30 out of 33 drivers. However, his recovery in the race was exception going from P30 at the start of the race to finish P11 at the line.
Possible Replacements:
Alex Palou (Chip Ganassi Racing)
Driver line-up: Pato O'Ward, Alexander Rossi, Alex Palou, Juan Pablo Montoya (Part time).
Meyer Shank Racing:
Unquestionably have the most experience driver line-up on the IndyCar grid with four-time Indy 500 champion Helio Castroneves and one time IndyCar champion and one-time Indy 500 winner Simon Pagenaud. Meyer Shank Racing has always been a team that has defied expectations when they were a one car team with Jack Harvey as their only driver.
Let's start with Helio, the newest member of the four-time club with his fourth Indy 500 win in 2021. A qualifying best of 4th at Belle Isle was then followed up with a P25 finish due to a electronic issue that turned off the dash on the steering wheel. A best race finish of 7th from a P27 start at the Indy 500 shouldn't be a surprise given his record at IMS. Outside of his three top 10 finishes, it could be one of his worst finishes in the series when he's done a full season. What makes for grim reading for Helio is that he's 70 points off team-mate Simon Pagenaud.
Simon Pagenaud is having the better season of the two drivers with numerous top 10 finishes with a season best of 2nd place at Indy Road Course. In all but 2 races, Simon has made positions from where he has started from hinting that if he can improve his qualifying pace than he will be able to get more points for both himself and the team.
Possible Replacements:
None
Driver line-up: Simon Pagenaud, Helio Castroneves
Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing:
A season of qualifying struggles for Rahal Letterman Lanigan especially on Graham Rahal's side a season best being 9th at the Grand Prix of Alabama but taking a look at Graham's season results, it's safe to say that their race car is better than their qualifying car which is not always a bad thing but can be unrewarding getting a P22 in qualifying and finishing P8 just what happened at Road America but a case of what could have been if the qualifying was better.
Jack Harvey in his first season with the RLL team moving from the Meyer Shank Racing Team, he too just like Graham Rahal has been disappointing in qualifying but even the results haven't been there compared to team-mate Graham. A top finish of 13th at three different races finds himself behind both his team-mates, Jack is 84 points off experienced team-mate Graham Rahal and 57 points behind rookie team-mate Christian Lundgaard. You can put that down to a new environment and a new team, but Jack needs to find something in the next few races otherwise it could be a struggle for Jack to get top 10's, top 5's.
Christian Lundgaard classified as a rookie but did do a handful towards the back end of the 2021 season. The recurring theme of having a poor qualifying car finds the path of Christian but he's finishing positions are more spread around 11th to 18th compared to team-mate Jack Harvey. The one thing that Christian has done is complete most of the laps that have been on offer this season.
Possible Replacements:
None
Driver line-up: Jack Harvey, Graham Rahal, Christian Lundgaard.
Ed Carpenter Racing:
Ed Carpenter Racing seem to be having mix fortunes when it comes to their qualifying pace and their race pace. In the hands of youngster Rinus Veekay the qualifying speed has been all over the place with pole position in Birmingham, Alabama but a 20th place start in Toronto. The biggest issue in the 21 car is the race pace as more often than not, Veekay has been going backwards in the races.
Team-mate Conor Daly has also struggled this year with the qualifying pace of the Ed Carpenter Racing car with the only stand out qualifying performance being at IMS Road Course with a P4 start but just like his young Dutch team-mate there appears to be better race car in the 20 in most races Daly has actually finished ahead of where he has started. The biggest cheer that Conor Daly will ever get is when he races at Indianapolis and particularly taking the lead in the Indy 500.
Possible Replacements:
Sting Ray Robb (Indy Lights)
Driver line-up: Conor Daly, Sting Ray Robb
Dale Coyne Racing:
Dale Coyne Racing is one of the smaller teams in the IndyCar field, but they know a good driver when they see it. This is once again the case in the form of David Malukas. the 21-year-old rookie has done a fine job in the 18 especially having a more experienced team-mate in the form of two-time Indy 500 winner Takuma Sato. Malukas, as you would expect from any rookie, had a slow start to the season but has gradually built and built on his performances and all that hard work is starting to show with some good qualifying results in the top 10 but falling backwards in the races but overall, he is having a stella season.
Takuma Sato on the other hand, has been having an underwhelming season for the speed that he has shown time and time again. Takuma has really struggled to get to grips with the Dale Coyne Racing 51 car, only managing to get into the fast 12 twice (Texas, Belle Isle). He hasn't really shone in the races either making it into the top 10 twice, with a season best of 7th place at the Indy GP Road Course.
Possible Replacements:
Linus Lundqvist (Indy Lights)
Driver line-up: Linus Lundqvist, Takuma Sato, David Malukas
Juncos Hollinger Racing:
Juncos Hollinger Racing is the only single car entry in the entire IndyCar and what a job Ricardo Juncos and Brad Hollinger have done with getting a talent in Callum Ilott to drive the 77 car. As much as they don't have the qualifying position or points that their pace deserves, to have achieved what they have with one car deserves a pat on the back. The only way is up for Juncos Hollinger Racing and maybe expanding to a two-car team to help reduce the work load on young Brit Callum Ilott. Santino Ferrucci is the first name that springs to mind taking over for a second seat at the team.
We've seen time after time that Santino is the perfect last-minute replacement, you need to go back to Belle Isle and Texas and see what Santino is able to do plus the team know what to expect from Santino given he replaced the injured Callum Ilott after the Brit suffered a broken hand after a nasty crash at the Indy 500 a week earlier.
The team also runs an Indy Lights programme so maybe they want to call up one of their former drivers in Sting Ray Robb. When Sting Ray Robb raced for Juncos Hollinger Racing in the Lindy Lights system, he finished 8th in the championship with 249 points but finished 288 points off the eventual winner Kyle Kirkwood.
Possible Replacements:
Santino Ferrucci, Sting Ray Robb (Indy Lights)
Driver line-up: Callum Ilott, Santino Ferrucci
AJ Foyt Racing:
The legendary team owner Mr AJ Foyt may be forced to run a two-car team with Dalton Kellett and maybe JR Hildebrand either doing the ovals for a returning Tatiana Calderon or a new driver. JR Hildebrand has experience racing with the AJ Foyt Racing organisation as he has been doing all the ovals, stepping in for Tatiana Calderon. Funding for the 11 of Tatiana Calderon seems to have curtailed her season. Tatiana was struggling to get up to speed with IndyCar and how the difference in the power, weight of the car compared to previous series she has raced in. Typically, languishing at the back, Tatiana has had some standout results with a 15th place at the Indy GP Road Course and 16th place at her second race of the season at Long Beach.
Dalton Kellett has now been in the series for three years, at the end of the current season, and it feels that he has struggled more than anyone else whether it be that is competitors have had more experience in Europe with the route to F1 or Japan in Super Formula, but something has clicked with IndyCar and Dalton and that is something that needs to be addressed to take the team forward. A season best qualifying of 14th at the first race in St Petersburg, Florida will be led to a 25th place finish. It would be the next race at Texas Motor Speedway where he would get his season best finish of 17th, which is something not to be looked over at. Texas is a typically hard oval to pass on given the fairly new PJ1 strip that is meant to help NASCAR but came in at the expense of IndyCars. For most of the races though it would be other drivers being involved in a crash or reliability issues for Dalton to progress from his lowly grid position.
Then there's Kyle Kirkwood, the reigning Indy Lights Champion, and although he doesn't have the out-right qualifying pace desired, a season best of P9 at the Mid-Ohio would lead to a DNF. Just like David Malukas, you sort of expect the pace to be their straight away due to the difference between an Indy Lights car and IndyCar and when watching the races, it feels like Kyle goes under the radar a bit. He must have something about his persona that attracted the keen eye of Michael Andretti to bring the young American to his team replacing fellow American Alexander Rossi. A 10th place at the Grand Prix of Long Beach is a career best to date that he's managed at a team that can only be described as a back-marker.
Possible Replacements:
Linus Lundqvist (Indy Lights)
Driver line-up: Dalton Kellett, JR Hildebrand (Ovals), Tatiana Calderon.
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