We're just over halfway through the 2023 season and the IndyCar silly season is about to hit overdrive with drivers already confirmed to be leaving their current teams while others hold the key to the rest of seats in the series. Here are my predictions for who will be racing where next year.
Chip Ganassi Racing:
Chip Ganassi Racing is one of two teams that run 4 cars but for 2024 they could potentially be down to 2 or 3 cars. That's because championship leader Alex Palou is predicted to be leaving and joining Arrow McLaren and 2022 Indy 500 champion Marcus Ericsson is out of contract at the end of the season. There's no doubt that 6-time champion Scott Dixon and rookie Marcus Armstrong are staying at the team but questions have been asked about what is Ericsson's future in the series.
Talks of a new contract for Ericsson have been ongoing since the month of May at Indianapolis but nothing has been mentioned about a new contract after Ericsson was asking to be paid like others have without bringing all the budget for the number 8 Huski Ice Spritz Honda and it's safe to say that he isn't short of options with other teams inquiring about his future and whether it's at CGR or somewhere else.
Possible Replacements:
Nolan Siegel (Indy NXT), David Malukas (Dale Coyne Racing), Kyffin Simpson (Indy NXT and CGR young driver), Felix Rosenqvist (Arrow McLaren), Takuma Sato (Free Agent).
Driver Line-up: Scott Dixon, Marcus Ericsson, Felix Rosenqvist, Marcus Armstrong
Team Penske:
Team Penske isn't having the season they had 12 months ago but it's a case of taking Palou out of the equation and most drivers would be having a better season than what the championship standings are showing. Josef Newgarden finally broke his duck of not winning the Indy 500 with a last-lap move on Ericsson while also winning the first oval race at Texas Motor Speedway but other than the wins, he's only had 1 other podium at Road America with a P2 finish. Josef finds himself P3 in the standings behind Dixon and Palou. Scott McLaughlin has had a somewhat quiet season compared to 2022 with only 1 win being at Birmingham, Alabama but other than that he hasn't had a podium but has finished in the top 10 several times and currently finds himself 6th in the drivers standings.
Will Power has had a torrid season compared to 2022 with no wins, 2 podiums but just a scattered reading when looking at his season results thus far. For the best qualifier ever in IndyCar, even his qualifying results haven't been impressive with 1 appearance in the Fast 6 and only a couple of visits in the Fast 12. He had an Indy 500 to forget with a 23rd place finish after a brush with the wall at turn 2 bent his steering. Would team owner Roger Penske want to change things up and freshen up the driver line-up I doubt but with the calibre of Ericsson potentially on the market, it wouldn't be something to rule out but I don't see any changes happening.
Possible Replacements:
None
Driver line-up: Scott Mclaughlin, Josef Newgarden, Will Power.
Andretti Autosport:
2023 has seen a better upturn in form for Andretti Autosport with a break-through victory for Kyle Kirkwood at Long Beach and a couple of pole positions for Romain Grosjean but overall the pace from the car just hasn't been there to take a consistent challenge to Chip Ganassi Racing, Team Penske, and Arrow McLaren on a regular basis. You could maybe put this down to a variety of different things but maybe the F1 challenges that team owner Michael Andretti has been focussing on has meant the IndyCar team has suffered because of it.
Colton Herta had all the talk of an F1 seat for 2023 but the super license saga meant he stayed in IndyCar but this season has been challenging for the young American with new people talking on the radio after his dad, Brian Herta, was moved to Kirkwood's stand and now has Rob Edwards on his timing stand who used to partner Alexander Rossi at Andretti Autosport and this change has shown a better side of Herta compared to the start of the season.
Romain Grosjean has had an abundance of pace this season but doesn't have the finishes to show for it and has also had too many crashes to warrant another season at Andretti Autosport. He could have won the season opener at St Peterburg if it wasn't for a late crash with McLaughlin that ended with both in the tyre wall, Texas he got caught out with dirty air when racing David Malukas then came back-to-back 2nd place finishes at Long Beach and Alabama but in truth, he could have won at the latter race. An 11th place finish at the Indy road course was the end of so form for the Frenchman as since then Grosjean just hasn't had a clean race with crashes at the Indy 500, Detroit, and Toronto have caused the Frenchman to be in a discussion of potentially losing his seat in the 28 DHL Honda.
Kyle Kirkwood has reunited with Andretti Autosport where he has had success with in lower categories, and it didn't take long to have their first bit of success together. Long Beach saw Kirkwood take his first pole position in Indycar and also his first Indycar win but other than that it's been an up-and-down season with a P6 finish in Detroit which might not sound impressive but given he had to pit at the end of lap 2 for a new rear wing, it was a stunning recover.
Now Devlin DeFrancesco is all but confirmed to be leaving Andretti Autosport and it's a relationship that just hasn't worked for both parties. DeFrancesco's best qualifying result this season has been 12th a couple of times and his best result of the season has been a 13th place finish at the Indy 500. The problem that the Canadian has had is that he's constantly being out-performed by his teammates and that he's at a team that needs drivers at the sharp end of the field and not at the back where DeFrancesco finds himself.
Possible Replacements:
Hunter Mcelreay (Indy NXT), Louis Foster (Indy NXT), Marcus Ericsson (Chip Ganassi Racing), David Malukas (Dale Coyne Racing), Callum Ilott (Juncos Hollinger Racing), Conor Daly (Free Agent), Ryan Hunter-Reay (Ed Carpenter Racing), Christian Lundgaard (Rahal Letterman Lanigan).
Driver Line-up: Colton Herta, Romain Grosjean, Kyle Kirkwood, and Christian Lundgaard.
Arrow McLaren:
Arrow McLaren has had a season of change with an entirely new pit crew, a new driver, and a bit of a name change. With Alexander Rossi making the jump from Andretti Autosport to the McLaren organisation meant that there needed to be a new pit crew but not for Rossi as his move to the 7 Arrow McLaren Chevrolet meant that Felix Rosenqvist had to move to the newly formed 6 Arrow McLaren Chevy. Pato O'Ward has had a good season so far which comes to show how far he and the team have come when you think that Pato hasn't even had a race win yet. O'Ward could have won both the first two races this season at St Petersburg and at Texas Motor Speedway but for different reasons, they didn't happen.
Felix Rosenqvist's seat at Arrow McLaren is once again up in the air, with an imminent move for Palou it leaves Rosenqvist in a sticky position. His results this season haven't been good enough to keep his seat but there have also been a bit of misfortune with crashes sustained all by himself or being involved with others. However, he also does a podium to his name this season with a 3rd place finish on the streets of Detroit. Alexander Rossi has been in the same boat as Rosenqvist this season but has better finishes to his name with a number of top 5 finishes in his first season with the team and the most important thing for Arrow McLaren is that it looks like they have got the Alexander Rossi that we all know and love which is always extracting the maximum out the car and looking like he's having fun which never looked the case towards the end of his Andretti days.
Possible Replacements:
Marcus Ericsson (Chip Ganassi Racing), Callum Ilott (Juncos Hollinger Racing), Conor Daly (Free Agent), Christian Lundgaard (Rahal Letterman Lanigan).
Driver Line-up: Pato O'Ward, Alex Palou, and Alexander Rossi
Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing:
A season of two halves for the RLL team with the start of the season being nothing less than embarrassing with drivers Graham Rahal, Christian Lundgaard, and Jack Harvey all struggling for pace compared to the rest of the "mid-team" pack and having to rely on crashed filled races to get a decent result. Let us start with Graham Rahal, who currently sits 14th in the driver standings, and let's be honest his results have been very disappointing when you think of Graham Rahal. He started with a 6th place finish at St Petersburg but had to rely on heavy misfortune for others to achieve that and the slump continued and being bumped out of the Indy 500 but was able to replace the injured Stefan Wilson after a final practice crash but since Road America results have been picking up, with an 11th place finish at Road America moving up 3 spots from his qualifying position, Mid-Ohio where he was on the front row for the first time in a very long time and came home 7th but should have been higher if it wasn't for pit-road issues and the race that's just gone in Toronto qualifying P27 and scoring a top 10.
The story for Jack Harvey has been even worse than Rahal's with Jack sitting in P23 in the standings and it wouldn't be harsh to expect a change in the 30 Kustom Entertainment Honda. A season high of P13 for the British driver says everything about how hard times are for him especially when you see other racers coming from other racing series and comfortably out-performing him. He too was also part of the bump day qualifying just to get into the Indy 500 and got in by knocking out his teammate Graham Rahal but overall it's been another miserable season for Harvey. Christian Lundgaard, in his second season of full-time IndyCar, is just flying in qualifying and in race trim with 2 pole positions and becoming the newest IndyCar race winner after his win in Toronto. Sitting 7th in the standings, Lundgaard has been the most consistent of the 3 RLL cars with his results and you have to start asking the question, is Lundgaard ready to take that next step and challenge for race wins/championships more often than what he currently is doing?
Possible Replacements:
Marcus Ericsson (Chip Ganassi Racing), David Malukas (Dale Coyne Racing), Linus Lundqvist (Porsche Carrera Cup Scandinavia), Christian Rasmussen (Indy NXT).
Driver Line-up: Graham Rahal and Jack Harvey
Meyer Shank Racing:
For a team that has drivers that have won a combined 5 Indy 500s and 1 IndyCar championship, they look far away from even tasting champagne let alone an IndyCar championship or another Indy 500. Helio Castroneves's season just hasn't been anything near what he should be for a veteran with 1 top 10 coming at the first oval at Texas Motor Speedway but other than that it's been either high 10s and low 20s for finishing positions for the Brazilian but it will be interesting the see whether this has watered down his motivation to carry on driving in the series.
Simon Pagenaud has had a fairly similar season to Castroneves however he has also had to miss the last 2 races and the next 2 races at Iowa after being declared unfit by IndyCar Medical after a brake failure caused his car to barrel role at Mid-Ohio in practice which has meant that Conor Daly stood in for him at Mid-Ohio and at the 2 rounds at Iowa while Meyer Shank Racing's IMSA driver Tom Blomqvist stood in at Toronto but lasted all but the 1st turn but when Pagenaud does return, it will be interesting to see how his results are and if he has any lasting effects of his accident.
Possible Replacements:
Tom Blomqvist (Meyer Shank Racing's IMSA program), Marcus Ericsson (Chip Ganassi Racing), Conor Daly (Free Agent), David Malukas (Dale Coyne Racing)
Driver Line-up: Tom Blomqvist and Conor Daly
Juncos Hollinger Racing:
Expanding to a 2 car team for the 2023 season with Callum Ilott and Argentina racer Agustin Canapino, the team started off well with back-to-back top 10s for Ilott and top 12s for Canapino but since those high finishes, the team is still lacking something in terms of pace from the car with a best finishing a P12 finish at the Indy 500 for Ilott and a P12 finish at Toronto for Canapino. They have a good driver lineup but the biggest question mark remains on what happens to Ilott, does he stay at JHR or does he get poached by another team?
Possible Replacements:
None
Drive Line-up: Callum Ilott and Agustin Canapino
Ed Carpenter Racing:
It's been a turbulent couple of races for Ed Carpenter Racing and a season that really hasn't delivered anywhere near what we expected. We all know how much talent Rinus Veekay has but even he has struggled this season with only 1 top-10 finish but when he has finished races they have been in the low-to-mid 10s. The team also parted company with Conor Daly after the Detroit Grand Prix and was then replaced by series veteran Ryan Hunter-Reay, who was only meant to have done the Indy 500. It's been a bit of a slow start for the American with a best finish of 17th at Road America but it remains to be seen whether he will be there next year or whether he's just a stand-in till the end of the season.
Possible Replacements:
Nolan Siegel (Indy NXT), Christian Rasmussen (Indy NXT)
Driver Line-up: Rinus Veekay and Ryan Hunter-Reay
Dale Coyne Racing:
The team is expecting to sign at least 1 new driver for the 2024 season with David Malukas confirming that this will be his last season with the team but hasn't confirmed where that will be. Malukas has had a couple of stand-out results with a 4th place finish at Texas Motor Speedway and a 6th place finish at Mid-Ohio but just like most of the field, his results outside of that are made from grim readings with low 20s for finishing positions. His teammate Sting Ray Robb is struggling out of the rookie field with the best finishing of 16th place at the season-opener but has had either low 20s or high 20s for finishing positions but there's always time to turn that around going into the 2nd half of the season.
Possible Replacements:
Nolan Siegel (Indy NXT), Christian Rasmussen (Indy NXT)
Driver Line-up: Sting Ray Robb and Nolan Siegel
A.J Foyt Racing
AJ Foyt is typically the team that is at the back and hoping for chaos to happen to get a good result and that's exactly what happened with Santino Ferrucci at the Indy 500. It's been a good number of years since we saw an AJ Foyt car compete for the Indy 500 and Ferrucci almost delivered that with a P3 finish behind winner Newgarden and runner-up Ericsson. If you take out that result then it's more often than not that a low 20s finishing position has meant that he finds himself in 18th in the driver standings. Moving onto his rookie teammate, Benjamin Pedersen, then he really has struggled out of all the rookies, he's had some stunning qualifying positions but the team hasn't been able to execute that on a Sunday to get a good result for both.
Possible Replacements:
None
Driver Line-up: Santino Ferrucci and Bejamin Pedersen
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